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ConDev Lecture: The Local Geography of Transnational Terrorist Attacks w/ Mike Findley. Details: http://goo.gl/pUlDZE
Abstract: Why are some locations more attractive targets for transnational terrorism than others? We know that transnational terrorist attacks occur in all regions and a majority of countries globally; yet intuition tells us also that not all locations within each country are equally likely to host an attack. Remarkably little is known about the local-level conditions and attributes that determine more precisely where transnational terrorism occurs. In this paper, we examine the determinants of transnational attack locations, specifically contending that individual locations can be characterized in two respects that directly impact the likelihood with which they will host terrorist attacks: attackability and attractiveness. In order to test these expectations, we geocoded data on transnational terrorism (from ITERATE) and regress them on two sets of covariates that are operationalized as proxies for attackability and attractiveness. Our analyses confirm that attacks are most likely at locations with recent civil violence (as captured with subnational geocoded data), proximity to the capital city and international borders, low levels of forest cover but mountainous terrain, and locations with higher populations and levels of economic activity. Collectively, these findings provide corroboration of both the attackability and attractiveness hypotheses.
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